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Happy Sunday 🇺🇸,
Quick heads-up: we just gave this whole operation a makeover. That meant working around the clock and drinking enough coffee to concern a cardiologist, but we think it paid off. New website, new store, new podcast, new socials, new content. Pretty much everything got a fresh coat of paint. We’re working hard every day to bring you more, so take a look around and tell us what you think. Good, bad, or brutally honest, we want to hear it.
Now, the news.
A lab worker in Siberia died of suspected plague, nearly 200 people are under watch, and Russia insists it’s just pneumonia. Surely we’re not doing this again. Anyone know if there’s an election coming up?
Meanwhile, an AI model filed a fake tip on an unsolved Philadelphia murder during a test. Police tossed it in the spam folder. Good news: the robots can lie to the cops. Better news: they’re bad at it.
Coffee’s hot. Let’s go.
THE SUNDAY SCORECARD
How America did this week:
S&P 500 7,811.54 @ Fridays Close | 30-YR MORTGAGE 7.40% ▲ from 6.30% a yr ago |
BITCOIN $82,996 * As of Saturday PM | NATIONAL GAS AVERAGE $4.37 vs $3.11 vs. same time last yr |
GOLD $4,195 /oz ▲ Up 1.3% from last week | NATIONAL DEBT $40.31T ▲ and counting |
* Numbers not real time.
IN A HURRY?
The 60-second version.
Wall Street’s partying. You’re not. The S&P 500 sits near a record while consumer sentiment just posted its second-worst reading in 74 years.
Washington found your address. $500 ACA refunds, $90 Medicare rebates, and a promised $5K if Republicans keep Congress. Three weeks to Election Day, total coincidence.
Pink slips are trending. Amazon cut nearly 1,000 jobs, and Netflix is reportedly lining up 800 more. Chick-fil-A is still hiring humans.
VOTE · YOUR OPINION MATTERS
$5,000 If You Vote Right?
Trump just made the boldest campaign promise in years: keep Republicans in charge of Congress, and every adult citizen gets five grand.
Democrats are screaming bribery. Some Republicans are checking the math and going pale. Congress would still have to sign off on it.
So be honest. When you hear “$5,000,” what’s your gut reaction?
Trump’s $5K promise is...
One tap. Results next Sunday.
01 · WASHINGTON
Politics & Policy
Trump says no strikes on Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms, citing “productive discussions.” Oil dropped on the news. Critics call it a bad look, supporters call it a pause. Either way, foreign policy now comes with an RSVP date.
Elon Musk’s warning that America is “1,000% going to go bankrupt” without AI and robots is making the rounds again. He said it in February. Since then, the debt has added nearly $2 trillion. Either Elon’s right, or the robots need to hurry up.
California votes Nov. 3 on a one-time 5% tax on billionaires’ net worth. Reagan economist Art Laffer warns it’ll speed up the exodus. Some billionaires already bought lake houses on the Nevada side of Tahoe. Opponents even put two measures on the ballot to cancel it out. Only in California does the ballot need its own ballot.
The Pentagon will livestream the Dec. 3 firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan, who killed 13 people. The pushback is coming from both parties. The debate isn’t his sentence. It’s whether it needs a stream link.
The checks are in the mail: $500 ACA refunds, $90 Medicare rebates, and a promised $5,000 per adult if Republicans keep Congress. Election season, the only time Washington remembers your address. Weigh in on the $5K in this week’s poll.
02 · YOUR WALLET
Markets & Money
Wall Street is partying. Main Street isn’t invited. The S&P 500 sits near a record high while consumer sentiment just hit 46.3, the second-lowest reading in 74 years. Economists call it a K-shaped economy. You call it Tuesday.
Feeling bad about $40 trillion? Say bonjour to France. Its budget mess sank the euro to a 17-month low and revived eurozone debt crisis fears. We’re not the only ones who can’t balance a checkbook. We just have bigger checks.
Boomers will free up 13.9 million homes over the next decade, per Realtor dot com. The catch: only about 380,000 are starter homes. Most are family homes, so unless you’re trading up, grab a seat. And bring your 7.4% mortgage.
Next week gets busy. Big banks kick off earnings season Tuesday, and inflation data drops Wednesday, expected around 3.6%. The Fed meets Oct. 27-28, and another rate hike isn’t off the table. Buckle up.
03 · MAIN STREET
Business & Society
Pink slip season is open. Amazon cut nearly 1,000 corporate jobs right after Prime Big Deal Days, while gearing up to spend $220 billion on AI. Netflix is reportedly next, with about 800 cuts as YouTube eats its lunch. “Are you still watching?” now applies to the staff.
Chick-fil-A says no AI at the drive-thru. McDonald’s and Wendy’s are testing robot order-takers, but Chick-fil-A is keeping a human on the speaker. Bold strategy: customer service.
Lyft will pay $272.5 million to settle California’s wage theft lawsuit, the largest of its kind in state history. Lyft says it did nothing wrong. Nothing says innocent like a quarter-billion-dollar check.
Leslie’s Pool Supplies filed for bankruptcy and is closing 76 stores. Officially, it went off the deep end.
El Pollo Loco is coming to Queens in mid-2027, with 15 New York locations planned. California chicken versus New York opinions. Grab popcorn.
Nike’s CEO told staff the company has put “sport at the center of everything we do.” Critics hear an admission it went too political. With the stock at a 12-year low, it’s back to selling shoes.
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04 · RESULTS
Last Weeks Poll:
Last Week’s Poll: Should They Have Been Allowed to Keep the GoFund Me Money?
Most of you said B) It shouldn’t matter who started it, as long as it’s true. Facts first, messenger second.
Best Reader Comment:
“What’s important is the amt of money the victim gets regardless of who produced the result as long as the daughter, in this case, doesn’t financially benefit.”
Get the victim paid, and make sure nobody turns it into a payday. Hard to argue with that.
05 · WINNERS & LOSERS
Winners:
Anyone who bought Amazon 10 years ago. The stock is up 493% in a decade, enough to turn $10,000 into more than $59,300. The 1,000 employees cut this week may feel differently.
Newborns. About 70 million kids now have a Trump Account, automatically, and babies born in the eligible window get a $1,000 Treasury seed. Trump says they’ll be “quite rich” by 18. Most of us were rich in Legos.
Losers:
Anyone who hates changing their clocks. The House passed permanent daylight saving time, Trump wants it, and he even posted Sen. Tom Cotton’s cell number to pressure him. Cotton says Arkansas kids shouldn’t go to school in the dark, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune says there’s “no clear path forward.” Fall back Nov. 1. Again.
US avocado growers. Seven California Republicans told the Trump administration that cartel-linked surges of Mexican avocados are collapsing US prices. Turns out guac is extra for everyone.
06 · WORTH YOUR WATCH
Left, right, doesn’t matter: nobody likes paying for fraud. California governor candidate Steve Hilton says the state is losing billions to it. Watch, then decide for yourself. Either way, it’s your tax money they’re arguing about.
@stevehilton 🚨 NEW: Becerra's HHS unleashed Medi-Cal fraud on a massive scale. We found a fraudulent Home Health operation in West Hollywood in MINUTES... See more
If You Hate Ads:
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07 · WEEKLY COMMON SENSE
Republicans Spend $700 Million Defending States They Usually Win In Their Sleep
Since Sept. 1, Republicans have booked more than $700 million in new congressional ads, much of it in deep-red states. Their main Senate super PAC just sent $14 million to Kansas and $5 million to South Carolina. Democrats call it a sign the GOP is on defense. Republicans call it using their money advantage.
Translation: Nothing says “safe seat” like a $14 million insurance policy.
HR Manager Pays Herself Like a CEO, Spends It Like a High Roller
A HR manager got 33 months in federal prison for stealing over $1 million from a small Spokane Valley business by inflating her paychecks and redirecting vendor payments. Most of it went to North Idaho casinos, and the owners had to use their own money to make payroll.
Translation: The house always wins. Unfortunately, so did HR. For two years.
The $250-a-Month Problem
A year ago, the average 30-year mortgage was 6.34%. Now it's 7.28%. On a $400,000 loan, principal and interest go from about $2,486 a month to about $2,737. That's roughly $250 more every month, or about $90,000 over the life of the loan, for the exact same house. The culprit is the 10-year Treasury, which mortgage rates tend to follow.
Translation: Wall Street didn't raise your house price. It raised the price of borrowing for it.
More Americans Are Falling Behind on Their Cards
The share of credit card balances that are 90+ days delinquent rose from 7.6% in late 2022 to 12.8% in early 2026, according to the New York Fed. That's the kind of number people last saw around the Great Recession. Total U.S. consumer debt hit $18.45 trillion in August, per Equifax.
Translation: When the card pays for groceries, the interest shows up for dinner too.
Your Water Bill Is Up 62%. Even the Tap Wants a Tip Now.
Household water bills rose 62% from 2015 to 2025, outpacing both inflation and paychecks, according to a Food & Water Watch study of the 500 largest systems. New Hampshire was the worst, up 177%.
Translation: Inflation, now available on tap.
08 · LATEST PODCAST
Republicans. Democrats. Why Am I Still Getting Screwed?
Is America In Decline?.
COMMON SENSE - RED STATE FINANCE
Republicans. Democrats. Why Am I Still Getting Screwed?
No shouting, no team jerseys. Just a 50-year report card on education, culture, politics and science, with real numbers. A fall, or just a rough patch? Listen, then you decide.
09 · MERCH
The Shop Got a Makeover.
New designs, new collections, and a whole lot more than last time. We could describe it, but honestly it’s easier to see for yourself. Go take a look: shop.redstatefinance.com
10 · FROM THE VAULT
Rates just made the average mortgage about $250 a month heavier. Our guide 18 Side Hustles That Could Cover Your Mortgage lays out 18 real ways people are bringing in extra income: what they pay, what they cost to start, and how much of your life they eat.
And since this week's diesel story is a lesson in taxes you never see, there's Hidden Taxes You're Paying That Nobody Thinks About. $4.99 each, or every guide included with the Common Sense Club.
11 · WHY SO SERIOUS?
Family Walks Out Over One Kid’s Pizza. Idaho Law Says…Nothing
A Coeur d’Alene family says Caddyshack Pub and Grill wouldn’t let their 3-year-old autistic grandson eat the only food he’ll eat, a small pizza they brought, while four adults ordered off the menu. The owners cite state code and health concerns. Local reporters found no Idaho law that bans outside food, though restaurants can set their own policies.
Translation: Four paying customers walked out over one personal pizza. That’s not policy. That’s bad math.
Server Slams Low Tippers. America Picks Sides Again.
Another server’s viral rant over a low tip has racked up more than a million views and reignited the tipping war. One side says pay 20% or stay home. The other says pay your staff.
Translation: Tipping went from “thanks for great service” to “thanks for existing.”
Owe the IRS? Congrats, You’re Winning
The IRS lost about 31,000 workers, nearly a third of its staff, in a single year. Phones go unanswered and wait times are up, so some tax pros now say owing a little at tax time beats waiting on a big refund.
Translation: Your refund is an interest-free loan to a government that can’t answer the phone.
Ex-CIA Official Pulls Off the Ultimate Covert Op: Your Wallet
David Rush pleaded guilty to inventing fake classified programs to divert nearly $200 million in government money, which went to Florida mansions and gold. The FBI found 303 gold bars worth over $40 million, $2 million in cash and luxury watches at his Virginia home. He also lied about his education and military record to get hired. He faces up to 20 years.
Translation: The CIA can track anyone on Earth. Just not the guy stacking gold bars in his basement.
Your Big Mac Price Was Allegedly Set by a Robot
A proposed class action claims McDonald’s uses an AI “pricing engine” to coordinate menu prices and pressures franchise owners to follow it. McDonald’s says AI doesn’t set prices and franchisees do. Meanwhile, two company-run stores in Fresno, about two miles apart, charged $5.69 and $6.89 for the same Big Mac.
Translation: Robot or not, the Dollar Menu is now a museum exhibit.
12 · EVENTS TO KNOW ABOUT
Columbus Day
Date: Monday, October 12
Banks, post offices, and the bond market are closed. The stock market is open.
Why you should care: Bank transfers and deposits won't move Monday. Plan around it.
Big Bank Earnings
Date: Tuesday, October 13 – Wednesday, October 14
The biggest U.S. banks report third-quarter results, including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo on Tuesday and Bank of America on Wednesday.
Why you should care: Banks see your card balances and loan defaults before anyone in Washington does. Listen to what they say about the consumer.
Inflation Report + Social Security COLA
Date: Wednesday, October 14, 8:30 a.m. ET
September CPI comes out, and Social Security announces next year's raise the same morning.
Why you should care: Over 71 million beneficiaries get their 2027 number, and the Fed gets its last big inflation read before its Oct. 28 meeting.
13 · THE RED STATE RANT
Is Remote Work Killing the American Work Ethic?
Somewhere right now, a guy is on mute, in sweatpants, “circling back” from the couch. Somewhere else, a woman is sitting in traffic for 50 minutes so she can answer emails she could’ve answered from her kitchen. So who’s right?
The case for getting back to the office
Let’s be honest: some people treated “work from home” as “home, from work.” Laptop open, Netflix louder, mouse jiggler doing the heavy lifting.
The office has accountability. The boss walks by, you look busy. Basic biology.
Young workers learn by watching, not by squinting at 14 frozen faces on Zoom. Nobody ever picked up a career-changing tip from a muted Teams call.
And the downtowns? Empty offices mean dead lunch spots, closed coffee shops and parking garages full of pigeons. The local deli doesn’t take Slack messages.
The case for staying home
If the work gets done, who cares where it got done? Results are results, whether they come from a cubicle or a recliner.
The commute is the real crime. Gas, tolls, wear and tear, and hours of your life spent staring at someone else’s bumper. Nobody on their deathbed says, “I wish I’d spent more time on I-95.”
Then there’s the office itself: fluorescent lights, a fridge that smells like 2019, and Gary from accounting explaining his fantasy football team. Again.
And the best part: the executives demanding everyone return to the office are often the same ones “working remotely” from a yacht. Rules for thee.
The verdict
Yes, this is the part where we pick a side. And yes, it’s going to sound like a cop-out: the answer is both.
A hybrid mix just works. A few days together for training, teamwork and keeping the local sandwich shop alive. A few days home for focus, family, and not burning a tank of gas to sit on video calls anyway.
But let’s be honest about what the office actually is half the time: hours in traffic, sitting next to people you can’t stand, pretending to look busy until 5:00 so nobody thinks you’re slacking. That’s not a work ethic. That’s theater.
Hire adults. Pay for results. Then let adults be adults.
What’s your setup, and would you go back full-time? Hit reply. We read every one.
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See you next Sunday.
The Red State Finance team
