PRESENTED BY
Happy Sunday 🇺🇸,
The French love a good protest. More than half a million people marched last Saturday over the cost of living and school conditions, it turned into riots and looting, and now Paris is under a partial curfew while Marseille and Lyon have banned protests this weekend. Consider it a preview. Our grocery bills are taking notes.
Back home, Rep. Ilhan Omar's legal week got stranger. A federal court filing calls her "Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, a/k/a Ilhan Abdullahi Omar", the same last name as her ex-husband, who critics have long claimed is also her brother. She denies any fraud and calls the probe political. Asked if they're related: "Not to my knowledge." Fake names, rumored brother-husbands. All very normal in U.S. politics these days.
And in a resurfaced Joe Rogan clip, Elon Musk says AI will take desk jobs "like lightning", while welders, plumbers and cooks get a much longer runway. Reading this at a desk? Maybe learn to weld.
Grab your strong coffee. It's been a week.
THE SUNDAY SCORECARD How America did this week:
* Numbers not real time. |
IN A HURRY? The 60-second version.
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VOTE · YOUR OPINION MATTERS
Whose Fault Are Gas Prices?
Gas is $4.30 a gallon, per AAA, up from $3.07 a year ago, and October is on track to be the priciest October on record. Brent crude closed at $113.17 Thursday, its highest since May, on fears of renewed strikes on Iran.
One side says it's simple: Trump's war, Trump's gas price. He promised cheaper energy and delivered $4 gas.
The other side says at least there's a reason this time. Gas hit a record $5.02 in June 2022 under Biden, with no war of our own to blame.
So be honest.
Who owns the pump price?
One tap. Results next Sunday.
01 · WASHINGTON
Politics & Policy
Let's start with the money everyone's been promised. Trump's $5,000 check is now a trust test. He's pitching a "Trump Dividend" for adult citizens if Republicans keep Congress on Nov. 3, but an Economist/YouGov poll found only 21% of voters think it will actually happen. Even among Republicans, it's just 45%, and some rally-goers told AP they don't expect a dime. Nothing builds trust like a check that's void if you lose.
While that check waits on the midterms, the administration is putting up to $42 million behind the Constitution Pipeline, a long-stalled 125-mile natural gas line from Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale to New York, using the Defense Production Act, a wartime law. Supporters say it'll cut heating bills across the Northeast. New York regulators blocked it once before. Pass the popcorn.
Speaking of power and money, Virginia state Sen. Louise Lucas, 82, was indicted Thursday on racketeering, drug and money laundering charges. Prosecutors say she ran a family marijuana business, the "Lucas Enterprise," and used her post as chair of the Senate Finance Committee to protect it, in a five-year scheme worth about $4.5 million. She's one of Virginia's most powerful Democrats, and she gets her day in court. The Finance chair apparently understood finance.
02 · YOUR WALLET
Markets & Money
Some good news if you're house hunting: mortgage rates dropped for the first time in two months. The 30-year fixed fell to 7.32% from 7.40%, per Freddie Mac. Buyers shrugged anyway. Purchase applications fell 7% in a week and are 18% behind last year, per the Mortgage Bankers Association. A sale nobody showed up for.
The big money, meanwhile, is busy. Wall Street thinks a Tesla-SpaceX merger could come "within weeks." Barclays says a deal could land before Tesla's annual meeting, expected by Dec. 6, creating a company worth around $3.5 trillion. Musk says it would make sense but has to clear a high bar. Elon merging with Elon. Antitrust lawyers, start your engines.
Over at JPMorgan, the bank has put $5 billion of its own money into companies tied to national security, from defense tech to battery storage, the first half of a $10 billion pledge. It also financed over $230 billion in related deals in a year. Turns out patriotism has a decent rate of return.
03 · MAIN STREET
Business & Society
On Main Street, the holiday season is already warming up. Apple's "Pro and Tell" launch is Wednesday, Oct. 28, and analysts expect the first touchscreen MacBook Pro, from the company that spent years insisting nobody wants to touch a laptop screen. Fingerprints, coming soon. Over in Detroit, GM's third-quarter profit jumped 151% to $3.3 billion while revenue grew just 2.9%. Somebody's margins are doing push-ups.
If you'd rather shop from the couch, Walmart+ and Sam's Club Plus now come bundled for $120 a year, almost $100 less than buying both, with free delivery, gas discounts and Peacock or Paramount+. Bulk toilet paper and streaming: the American dream, $10 a month. Somebody has to deliver all that, so Amazon is hiring 300,000+ people for the holidays, with seasonal pay averaging $20 an hour, and seasonal workers on 30+ hours get day-one healthcare from Jan. 1. Santa's workshop is now a fulfillment center.
At the fancy end, United just opened its biggest lounge ever: 54,000 square feet and 800 seats, part of a $2.6 billion Houston overhaul. Plenty of room to discuss the wealth gap (see Weekly Common Sense). At the other end of the ledger, Getty Images filed for Chapter 11, and eBay is cutting about 1,000 jobs, roughly 9% of staff, its second round this year. Stock photo of a man carrying a box: now available.
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04 · RESULTS
Last Weeks Poll:
What Does Bend Prove?
95% of you said A) Good guys with guns save lives when seconds matter. 5% said one hero isn't a policy. Not exactly a nail-biter.
Best Reader Comment:
“Doesn't matter how gun laws change, get stricter, make it harder for the ‘good guy’… the bad guy with a mission in mind can and will get their hands on them.”
One thing both sides agree on: a 16-year-old should never have had that gun.
05 · WINNERS & LOSERS
Winners:
Kids in America. First Trump Accounts, now SpaceX. Elon Musk pledged one SpaceX share to every kid in America next year, about $10.5 billion worth, per CNBC, and calls it "the first of many." Meanwhile, Social Security is now tucking Trump Account info into newborns' Social Security card mailings, with how to claim the $1,000 Treasury deposit. Day one: SSN, $1,000 and a rocket share. Day two: diapers cost what?
People Who Own Gold. Gold futures topped $4,200 early in the week as bets on another Fed rate hike faded. By Saturday morning, spot gold had slid to about $3,997, its worst week since June. Winners for a day. Long-term holders didn't even look up from their coffee.
Losers:
Anyone Committing Fraud. Social Security has corrected nearly 50 million records, the biggest cleanup in its 91-year history, including 17 million missing dates of death. And the GAO estimates tax fraud costs up to $304 billion a year. Seventeen million missing death dates. That's a lot of very patient retirees.
The Owner of This Wedding Venue. A Texas venue kept $15,909 from a bride whose 25-year-old fiance died suddenly, offered to put it toward a future event instead, then countersued her. After a wave of bad press, it dropped the countersuit and agreed to refund every penny. Humanity at its finest. Eventually.
06 · WORTH YOUR WATCH
Comedian Jim Breuer says school is a prison with a cafeteria. Same ugly building, same trays, hours indoors. Harsh? Public school enrollment is projected to fall by 2.7 million students by 2031, per Bellwether, as charter, private and homeschool options grow (falling birth rates do most of the damage). And one Missouri substitute says her OnlyFans pays in an hour what subbing paid in a day. Silent protest against the classroom, or just fewer kids? Watch, then hit reply.
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07 · WEEKLY COMMON SENSE
United's CEO Wants a Wealth Tax. His Pay: $32.3 Million. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told The New York Times the U.S. needs a national wealth tax and inheritance taxes "close to 100 percent at some level," calling wealth inequality "a danger to our society." He took home about $32.3 million last year, roughly 334 times United's median employee. "I would pay them," he said. Asked if he'd take a pay cut, United didn't respond. Translation: He'd pay it. He just hasn't volunteered to start early. |
Kiyosaki: Boomers Are "Being Set Up" Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki predicts a stock crash could leave "millions of boomers" homeless or moving in with their kids. "They're going to yank the stock market," he said, without saying who "they" are or offering evidence. He's called plenty of crashes before. His point about retirees still stands: it's hard to wait out a crash when you're living off the account. Translation: Check your 401(k) mix before the market checks it for you. |
Thieves Swipe Nearly $1 Million in Trading Cards Off a FedEx Truck Thieves took about $963,000 in sports and Pokémon cards from a FedEx truck at a card-grading company in Santa Ana, California, police say. One collector lost 104 cards he'd spent two years building, insured for $156,000. The grading company says it will refund fees and pay fair market value. No arrests yet. Translation: Your childhood binder is now an asset class. Insure it like one. |
Nine Million Americans Now Work More Than One Job About 5.5% of employed Americans, roughly nine million people, hold multiple jobs, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It's called "polyworking," which sounds better than "two jobs." An employment lawyer warns that hiding the second job from your boss is where it goes wrong, and if you're angry at both jobs, you're overextended. Translation: The side hustle used to be the dream. Now it pays the rent. |
BlackRock CEO: The $40 Trillion Debt Matters Less If AI Delivers Larry Fink says the national debt "will not be as consequential" if AI pushes U.S. growth to 3% or more, because debt-to-GDP would fall. He also expects "structurally higher interest rates for longer" and says the AI buildout needs $7 trillion to $9 trillion. One data center: about $50 billion. Translation: The plan to fix the debt is a robot. Keep your day job (see Musk, above). |
08 · LATEST PODCAST
Does Being Successful Make You a Villain in America?Episode 23 · 12 minutes
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A third of 18-to-29-year-olds say being a billionaire is morally wrong, per Pew. Cole and Savannah make the builder's case for Elon Musk, ask why Richard Branson gets a pass, then weigh the honest case for and against the people at the top. Pairs nicely with United's CEO above. Listen, then you decide.
09 · MERCH
Your Beer Called. It Wants 2019 Back.
Front: "This beer was $1.50 in 2019." Back: "Now: $8.99 + tip + fee." Keeps your drink cold while you complain about what it cost. Perfect for the airport self-checkout (see Why So Serious?).
 This Beer Was $1.50 In 2019 Can Cooler A moment of silence for the $1.50 beer. |
Common Sense Club members get 15% off the whole shop with code CLUB15. |
10 · FROM THE VAULT
Surveillance pricing sounds like a conspiracy theory. It isn't (see the Rant). For the ones that might be, our guide The Biggest Conspiracy Theories in American History takes 11 of America's biggest "what really happened?" moments and scores the official story and the theory on actual evidence. No dunking, no hype. $4.99, or included with every other guide in the Common Sense Club.
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11 · WHY SO SERIOUS?
Pringles Will Pay $28,080 to Be Buried in a Can Pringles' "Once You Drop" sweepstakes offers one fan a custom Pringles-can urn plus $28,080, enough for 52 cans a year for 200 years. Entrants signed a mock "Will and Taste-ament." It's a nod to the can's designer, Fredric Baur, whose family buried some of his ashes in one in 2008. Translation: Once you pop, you can't stop. Not even at the funeral. |
Airbnb Bans the Checkout Chore List Starting Nov. 20, Airbnb hosts can't make guests wash dishes, strip beds or haul trash off-site. They can still ask you to put dishes in the sink and gather the towels. Some hosts are threatening to quit, and a petition has topped 2,900 signatures. Translation: The cleaning fee will finally cover cleaning. |
People Are Using AI to Make Smart TVs Dumb Again Developers are sharing AI-built fixes that strip ads, tracking and bloatware from smart TVs. One coder had Claude Code clean up his parents' TV over Wi-Fi, removing 25 Xiaomi apps, and a few thousand people copied it within two days. Many smart TVs identify what you're watching and sell that data to advertisers. Translation: Your TV has been watching you watch it. Now it's your turn. |
San Francisco: $325K a Year Still Gets Childcare Help San Francisco will pay half of childcare costs for families earning up to $325,000 a year, and all of it for a family of four earning up to $235,000. Mayor Daniel Lurie calls the city "incredibly, extraordinarily expensive." Median one-bedroom rent: $4,300. Translation: In San Francisco, $325,000 a year officially "needs a hand." |
Airport Self-Checkout Asks for an 18% Tip A traveler filmed a Newark Airport kiosk that added an automatic 18% tip, $1.17, to a $6.49 bottle of water, with no employee in sight. "Who am I tipping here?" he asked. In a survey this year, 78% of Americans said tipping culture has become "ridiculous." Translation: Tip the robot. It's saving up to take your job. |
12 · EVENTS TO KNOW ABOUT
Fed Rate Decision Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2 p.m. ET Markets expect a hold, but Chair Kevin Warsh doesn't telegraph his moves. Why you should care: A surprise hike pushes mortgage and credit card rates higher. |
Big Tech Earnings Date: Wednesday, October 28 and Thursday, October 29, after the close Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday. Apple's new Macs also land Wednesday. Why you should care: They're a big slice of the S&P 500, so your 401(k) is in the audience. |
Third-Quarter GDP Date: Thursday, October 29, 8:30 a.m. ET First estimate of U.S. growth for July through September. Why you should care: Larry Fink says 3% growth makes the debt less scary. Here's the scorecard. |
13 · THE RED STATE RANT |
Are We All About to Get Ripped Off by Surveillance Pricing?
Picture it: you and your neighbor order the same dozen eggs, from the same store, at the same minute. You pay $3.99. She pays $4.79. Same eggs. Same chicken, probably. The only difference? An algorithm decided she'd pay more.
That's not a hypothetical. Last December, Consumer Reports, Groundwork Collaborative and More Perfect Union had 437 shoppers fill identical Instacart carts at the same time. Almost three-quarters of the items showed up at more than one price. A dozen Lucerne eggs at a D.C. Safeway came in at five different prices, from $3.99 to $4.79.
It has a name: surveillance pricing. Companies use what they know about you, like your location, browsing, income and past purchases, to decide what you'll pay. Lawmakers in at least 30 states have considered pricing bills this year. New York now makes companies post a warning: "THIS PRICE WAS SET BY AN ALGORITHM USING YOUR PERSONAL DATA."
So, is this smart business or a pickpocket with a PhD?
The case for
Prices have never been one-size-fits-all. Seniors get discounts. Students get discounts. Airlines have charged different fares for the same seat for decades, and coupons exist so the people who clip them pay less.
Supporters say personal pricing can work in your favor too: the loyal customer gets a deal, the price-sensitive shopper gets a discount they'd never see otherwise. Businesses call it efficiency.
And if you don't like the price, shop somewhere else. Still a free country, last we checked.
The case against
A coupon is something you choose. Surveillance pricing is chosen for you, and you never see the other guy's price. You can't comparison-shop against a number you don't know exists.
It also flips the goal. It's not the price the market will bear. It's the price you will bear. Senators warned last year that AI-set airfares could push prices up to each traveler's personal "pain point." Delta said it won't use AI to personalize fares. Good. Now ask the same question of every app on your phone.
And this one isn't left or right. Nobody voted for an app that charges you more because you live in a nice ZIP code, or because it figured out you keep gold in a safe at home.
The verdict
Discounts you opt into? Fine. Surge pricing on a snowy night that everyone sees? Annoying, but fair. A secret price built from your data? No.
The price should be the price. Same item, same store, same minute, same number for everyone, whether you drive a pickup or a Porsche, whether you've got $40 in checking or a gold bar under the floorboards.
At minimum, every state should do what New York did and tell us when the algorithm is pricing us. Sunlight is cheaper than lawsuits.
Ever caught a different price for the same thing? Hit reply. We read every one.
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See you next Sunday.
The Red State Finance team
